Top 5 Contenders for March Madness at the Christmas Break (Men's)

There’s still plenty of time for teams to change their fortunes before March, but these 5 teams have built up resumes that project strongly for success all season. My top 5 title contenders for this men’s college basketball season are as follows:

5.     Duke Blue Devils (10-2, #4 in the AP Poll)

Duke has one of the youngest rosters in all of college basketball with an electric group of freshmen headlined by projected #1 overall pick Cooper Flagg. 4 of the top 5 scorers on this Blue Devils team are freshmen and have proved to be key contributors to a Duke team that lost its two best players to the NBA. Coming off a strong season in the second-year post Coach K, Duke made it to the Elite 8 where they lost to NC State, who also happened to knock them out in the first round of the ACC Conference Championship. The top contributor returning for Duke is junior guard Tyrese Proctor who started 25 of 32 games in his sophomore season and 34 of 36 games in his freshman season. Proctor is a projected late first round or early second round pick in this year’s NBA draft joining fellow teammates freshmen Cooper Flagg, Khaman Maluach, Isaiah Evans and Kon Kneuppel. Flagg, Maluach, and Kneuppel are all projected to be lottery picks with Evans and Proctor going in the late first to mid second round. The abundance of talent this Duke team alone has them in the title conversation. We have seen in the past the struggles of younger teams when March comes, and the tournament nerves derail a young team like Duke. Duke has played some top teams to begin the season with their 2 losses coming to Kansas and Kentucky at neutral site venues. Duke also has, in my opinion, the best resume win in the country with a home victory over #2 Auburn (my title favourite). Duke has the depth and talent to cause serious problems in March and projects to be a top seed. The biggest concern for Duke is lack of experience in big games. With a huge freshmen dependence and a third-year coach who, like his players, is one of the younger coaches in the country. Duke will be an exciting team to watch with high level talent across the roster, but inexperience may become the crux of this extremely skilled team in March.

4.     Iowa State Cyclones (10-1, #3 in the AP Poll)

This Iowa State Cyclones team combines tenacious defence with lightning quick pace getting their guards attacking in transition and capitalizing on their defensive turnovers. The guard combination of Keshon Gilbert and Curtis Jones provides Iowa State with an offensive spark that they have lacked in recent years to pair with their suffocating defence. Limiting turnovers is going to be a key if you want to beat this Iowa State team who averages 10 steals a game and generates 16 turnovers leading to a lethal transition offence with their up-tempo offence. The Cyclones rank in the top 35 of all Division 1 teams with an average of 15.45 fastbreak points a game, further highlighting the importance of limiting turnovers against this stingy defence. Iowa State has not had too many challenging games so far but does boast two quality wins over Dayton on a neutral court and a double-digit win over Marquette in Ames. The only blemish on the Cyclones record is a last second tip-in by Johni Broome that saw Auburn pull out an 83-81 win in the first round of the Maui Invitational in Hawaii. Iowa State runs out one of the most experienced teams in Division 1 basketball bringing back their top four leading scorers from a top 10 team last season and a key transfer in senior center Dishon Jackson who adds an experienced player to an Iowa State frontcourt that looks to compliment their elite backcourt duo. A stout defensive team is always difficult to face in March but if the Cyclones can keep their offence ticking at its current pace, they pose a threat on both ends of the court that make them a strong contender to cut the nets down in San Antonio.

3.     Gonzaga Bulldogs (9-3, #14 in the AP Poll)

Gonzaga brings back a very experienced roster with four returning starters and one key conference transfer getting guard/forward Michael Ajayi who averaged 17.2 points per game with Pepperdine last season. Gonzaga has a very balanced offensive attack with six players averaging double digit points. The frontcourt trio of Graham Ike, Bulldogs leading scorer and rebounder, Braden Huff, and Ben Gregg provide a strong rotation of big men in a Gonzaga offence that focuses heavily on guards and small forwards. The Bulldogs have Division 1’s leading playmaker in Canadian guard Andrew Nembhard who is averaging just over 10 assists per game and is the player the Bulldogs offence runs through. Nembhard is joined in the backcourt by transfer guard Khalif Battle and returning starter Nolan Hickman. The Bulldogs do not have as strong of a resume as other teams listed here with only two ranked wins (Baylor and currently unranked Indiana) and a neutral site loss to an unranked West Virginia. The other two losses for the Bulldogs came against Kentucky and UConn. The Bulldogs have a strong all-around team and are coached by top coach Mark Few who has led the Bulldogs to the NCAA tournament every year since he took over coaching duties for the 1999-2000 season and has made at least the Sweet Sixteen each of the last ten years with two championship appearances. Gonzaga has put up impressive results and has had a wave of talent over the years but has yet to hit the pinnacle of college basketball and come away with a March Madness victory. With all the talent over the years its quite a surprise that Gonzaga has yet to win an NCAA Championship, will this finally be their year?

2.     UConn Huskies (10-3, #11 in the AP Poll)

Despite huge roster turnover and a rocky start to the season how can you count out the two-time defending champion Huskies. Storrs has been a basketball hot spot for much of the past decade with both the men’s and women’s programs winning multiple championships. Dan Hurley runs a tight ship up in Storrs and will be looking to bring UConn to a third straight NCAA championship. With four Huskies starters leaving to the NBA after last season’s championship it has proven to be a bit of a challenge at times to begin the season for this relatively inexperienced UConn team. Alex Karaban is the lone returning starter for the Huskies and will be the key to this UConn team’s success. Karaban tested the NBA waters before deciding to return for his third season and lead this UConn team. Karaban leads the team in scoring with 16.5 points per game and producing at multiple levels on offence shooting at a 42.1% clip from 3-point range. Karaban is joined by returning sophomore guard Solo Ball and senior guard Hassan Diarra who have both seen their roles greatly expanded from the previous season. To accompany the returning players Dan Hurley brought in transfer center Tarris Reed Jr., who spent two seasons at Michigan before being drawn to Storrs in the transfer portal, and top freshman Liam McNeeley who has emerged as second fiddle to Karaban on the offensive end of the court while still adjusting to the defensive components of the college game. UConn struggled early in the season losing all three of their games at the Maui Invitational in Hawaii losing close games to Memphis and Colorado before being demolished by a strong Dayton team to close out the tournament 0-3. UConn has rebounded nicely with wins over ranked Baylor and Gonzaga teams to close out their non-conference schedule. UConn should have limited troubles in conference play after losing just two conference games last season. The biggest threat to UConn’s reign over the Big East will likely come from a strong Marquette team but with Dan Hurley at the helm the Huskies remain as top contenders to 3-peat this year. When this team gets to March look out, UConn has won their last twelve tournament games with the average margin of victory being over 20 points per game each year.

1.     Auburn Tigers (11-1, #2 in the AP Poll)

Auburn has the favourite for National Player of the Year in center Johni Broome who is the catalyst for this Tigers team. Broome has shown in his game this year similarities to NBA superstar Nikola Jokic with the ability to facilitate for his teammates while also generating his own shots and dominating in the paint on both ends of the court. Broome leads the Tigers in points, rebounds, assists, and blocks per game while being top five in rebounding for all of Division 1. Behind Broome this Tigers team has a committee approach with four players averaging double digit scoring and a fifth player averaging 9.8 points per game. While Broome leads the team, the Tigers are not a one-man team. The Tigers have already proven their pedigree by beating four ranked teams (#15 Houston, North Carolina ranked #12 at the time of matchup, #3 Iowa State, and #21 Purdue). Auburn has one loss at Cameron Indoor Stadium, home to the Duke Blue Devils, where the Blue Devils depth and star performance by Cooper Flagg was enough to hold off Auburn and earn a 7-point victory. Auburn will play a gruelling conference schedule against top SEC competition like Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Oklahoma and other ranked teams that will further battle test this Auburn team. Returning senior guard Chad Baker-Mazara and freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford will need to be key secondary contributors to compliment the dominant game of Broome and provide a multi-faceted attack for the Tigers offence. Auburn had a shocking exit from last year’s tournament losing in the round of 64 to a Yale team that had some incredible performances on the day after being projected as a Sweet Sixteen team with Final Four potential. Baker-Mazara was to play a huge role in this game as a complimentary piece to Broome but was ejected three minutes into the game. Look for the Tigers to come back with a vengeance and be better prepared for a deep run in March.

Honourable Mentions: Alabama (#5), Kansas (#7), Tennessee (#1), Marquette (#8), Houston (#15)

Alabama possesses one of the most lethal scoring guards in college basketball with Mark Sears. They round out the team around Sears pairing him with freshman guard Labaron Philon in an exciting backcourt and employing an imposing experienced frontcourt of transfer graduate center Clifford Omoruyi and returning graduate forward Grant Nelson. Kansas sports one of the most experienced teams in college basketball with notable returnees including 2023-2024 BIG12 First Team center Hunter Dickinson to accompany three other returning starters in DeJaun Harris, KJ Adams, and Zeke Mayo. Kansas also was active in the transfer portal bringing in junior guard AJ Storr from Wisconsin. This experience paired with one of the best coaches in college basketball, Bill Self, makes Kansas a legitimate threat to make a deep run in March. Tennessee has started the season with an undefeated record of 11-0 with a big resume win over Baylor on a neutral court. Apart from this win, Tennessee is yet to come across some of the top teams that my top five contenders have already faced off against this year. Tennessee will be tested as they begin SEC play in January hosting #23 Arkansas (now coached by legendary coach John Calipari), followed by a visit to the swap in what could be a battle of undefeated teams versus #6 Florida who have a similar resume as Tennessee with a statement win in North Carolina versus the Tar Heels. Look out for the Tennessee backcourt duo of playmaking senior guard Zakai Ziegler and scoring senior transfer guard Chaz Lanier from North Florida who dictate the pace and flow of the Tennessee offence. Marquette has been in the shadow of fellow Wisconsin state team Wisconsin for much of the 2000s but have recently broken out in a tough Big East Conference that contains UConn and Creighton, surpassing a strong in state rival. Marquette has one of the best all-around guards in college with Kam Jones carrying this Golden Eagles team. Averaging a stat line of 20 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists, Kam is the primary driver of the top 50 scoring offence. Marquette boasts a strong resume with wins against ranked Purdue and Wisconsin teams and their only two losses coming on the road against #3 Iowa State and top mid-major Dayton who boasts an 8-0 home record and 10-3 overall record with their only losses coming to teams ranked at the time of matchups. Houston seems to always churn out NBA level guards and this year looks to be no different. Transfer senior guard LJ Cryer tested the NBA Draft waters in his junior year at Baylor before deciding to transfer to Houston to boost his draft stock and push for a National Title with the Cougars. Cryer joins a backcourt with returning starter Emmanuel Sharp, a junior guard and another transfer, junior guard from Oklahoma Milos Uzan. To complement the deep backcourt expected of any Houston team, the Cougars have a defensive nightmare frontcourt starring senior forward J’Wan Roberts and sophomore forward Joseph Tugler, who leads the team with an average of 2.5 blocks a game. Coached by one of the best coaches in the NCAA, Kelvin Sampson instills a ruthless defensive mindset into his players that make Houston one of the toughest teams to play against.