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NFL Playoff Picture
- bradenmorrison
- Jan 4
- 11 min read
The National Football League (NFL) regular season concludes this weekend and there’s plenty of scenarios still to decide the teams and seeding to see who will hoist the Super Bowl in New Orleans on February 9th. Let’s take a look at some of the teams who have already clinched the playoffs and have also secured their playoff seeding.
Teams Locked into Playoff Seeds: These teams have nothing to play for in Week 18 as no matter the result of their games they are locked into the playoffs and the seed they currently hold.
Kansas City Chiefs (#1 seed in the AFC): The Chiefs once again hold the top seed in the American Football Conference (AFC) after being the 3 seed last year to repeat as Super Bowl Champions. The AFC will run through Arrowhead one of the toughest stadiums to play at for opposing teams in the NFL as the Chiefs have guaranteed home-field advantage and a first-round bye in the AFC. Patrick Mahomes has had a down year by standards NFL fans hold the star quarterback at, but the Chiefs continue to keep winning. A defence led by elite defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is highlighted by fourth year linebacker Nick Bolton, two-time first team All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones and third year cornerback Trent McDuffie. This Chiefs defence has stifled opposition this year to the tune of a top ten defence that has rebounded from a shaky start to the season. Pair this surging defence with an offence that is finally starting to click after early season woes and injuries. The Chiefs have had their share of injuries losing starting running back Isiah Pacheco for the majority of the season along with starting wide receivers Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown, the latter who has since returned. With the Chiefs offence starting to get back to full health and Patrick Mahomes starting to find his groove, it is hard to peg any other team as favourite to win the Super Bowl. The Chiefs will be resting many of their starters this week against the Denver Broncos which could have a detrimental effect on a few AFC teams clinging to a slim chance to get the coveted last spot in the playoffs. Kansas City will like their chances to bring home their third straight Super Bowl in 2025 and securing home field advantage in the AFC is a tremendous start to their title defence.
Buffalo Bills (#2 seed in the AFC): The Buffalo Bills have been enjoying life in the AFC East since the departure of Tom Brady to the NFC, then retirement. Since Tom Brady left the New England Patriots the Buffalo Bills have won five straight AFC East titles. Buffalo has the Most Valuable Player (MVP) front runner in star quarterback Josh Allen. This Bills team revolves around Allen, he is a lethal offensive weapon with elite dual threat ability. Many analysts and fans, myself included, had the Bills taking a step back in the 2024-2025 season after the departure of #1 wide receiver Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans and the Bills no longer having a true #1 option for Josh Allen to pass the ball to. Josh Allen and this Bills team seem to have taken this personally and have rattled off a spectacular 13-3 season with a marquee win over the Kansas City Chiefs in a game that very well could be an AFC Championship preview. The Bills defence has struggled this season and could be the crux for this team to make a deep run in a loaded AFC playoff picture. An offensive juggernaut in the Cincinnati Bengals are lurking in the background and if they can find a way to sneak into the playoffs a Bills-Bengals wildcard matchup would produce fireworks. Josh Allen and running back James Cook will be pivotal to drive the Bills offence that will look to punish opposing defences and rack up points.
Houston Texans (#4 seed in the AFC): After wrapping up the AFC South title for the second straight year Houston will look to build on that playoff experience and look to make it past the Divisional round for the first time in franchise history. Houston and second year quarterback CJ Stroud have underwhelmed after an incredible debut season by Stroud and now second year coach DeMeco Ryans that saw them exceed expectations for their rebuild making the playoffs and winning their wildcard game in convincing fashion over the Cleveland Browns. Houston has been carried by their defence led by young superstars Will Anderson Jr. (defensive end), Derek Stingley Jr. (cornerback), and the experienced free agent signing Danielle Hunter (defensive end) who has seamlessly replaced the production of former defensive end Jonathan Greenard who left in free agency last off-season. Houston will have a tough wildcard round opponent that they will not know until the results of the AFC North games on Saturday. Houston will host either the Baltimore Ravens or the Pittsburgh Steelers in a wildcard game that will be highly anticipated. If Houston can get through this game, they would likely head to Arrowhead, a haunting place for Texans fans who watched a colossal collapse in the 2020 divisional round, where the Chiefs will be waiting. It is yet to be announced as to what the Texans will be doing regarding resting their starters, but given the last few week’s results we may see Ryans run out the starters in a divisional game against the lowly Titans to gain some confidence going into the playoffs. Houston will hope to avoid any more injuries as their offensive line and wide receiver rooms have been ravaged by injuries this year with a carousel of players rolling through the offensive line positions and two of their top wide receivers (Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell) out for the remainder of the season. Houston will look to rely on their stingy defence and hope for CJ Stroud to regain his rookie year confidence to propel this team deep in the playoffs.
Philadelphia Eagles (#2 seed in the NFC): The Eagles locked up the National Football Conference (NFC) East division marking the twentieth straight season the NFC East has not had a repeat champion. The Eagles have had a relatively tumultuous season for a team that boasts a 13-3 record while topping their division. Media turmoil between starting quarterback Jalen Hurts and star wide receiver AJ Brown caused headlines late in the season where comments by Brown regarding the Eagles passing game became a firestarter for media outlets. Earlier in the season head coach Nick Sirianni was seen having an altercation with Eagles fans after a close win in Cleveland that put the Eagles record to 3-2 to start the season. Sirianni has been a coach that has had his emotions get the better of him in the past and after multiple late season collapses Eagles faithful will be holding this Eagles team to a high standard. The Eagles are led by star running back and top free agent signing Saquon Barkley. Barkley signed with the Eagles after starting his career with the New York Giants, divisional rivals of the Eagles. Barkley has the opportunity to break the NFL rushing record, albeit in a greater number of games, but he has been extremely humble noting in interviews that he would respect the team’s decision to rest the starters to give the team the best chance to be fully healthy for a deep playoff run. The Eagles possess two of the best defensive rookies from the 2024 NFL Draft in cornerbacks Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell with both rookies in the top five of betting odds to win Defensive Rookie of the Year honours. Quinyon Mitchell has been getting high praise in the NFL circle with many past, current players and analysts comparing his shutdown to that of Hall of Fame cornerback Darrelle Revis (famously known for his nickname Revis Island). The Eagles will be in tough with a gauntlet of a playoff schedule in the stacked NFC that could feature seven 10-win teams.
Playoff Teams Fighting for Seeding: These teams have clinched a playoff spot but still have everything to fight for in Week 18 with division titles, playoff seeding and home field advantage all still to play for. Current playoff seeding in brackets.
Baltimore Ravens (#3 seed in the AFC) and Pittsburgh Steelers (#5 seed in the AFC): A Saturday double-header will see the four AFC North teams battle it out with three teams still in the hunt for a chance to raise the Lombardi Trophy at seasons end. The AFC North is still up for grabs in Week 18 and with that the #3 seed in the AFC. The Ravens currently hold the lead on the division and play a Cleveland team that has had a brutal season with less than stellar quarterback performances that have led to their offence being stagnant and their team closer to another first overall pick then a playoff spot. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, will be in tough facing a Bengals team that continues to claw their way into the playoffs despite a 1-4 record to begin the season. With the Steelers-Bengals game happening after the Ravens-Browns game we could see the Steelers rest starters if the Ravens lock up the division and the #3 seed in the AFC. The Steelers may still choose to play their starters as they have a chance to fall to the #6 seed and set-up a rubber match with the Ravens in the wildcard round if they were to lose to the Bengals and the Los Angeles Chargers were to beat the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. A win by both the Ravens and Steelers would lock the teams into the 3rd and 5th seeds in the AFC.
Los Angeles Chargers (#6 seed in the AFC): The Chargers are back in the playoffs after an underwhelming 2023-2024 season. First year head coach Jim Harbaugh has come in and brought with him the winning mentality he has brought to teams throughout his career. Harbaugh was coming off a National Championship with the Michigan Wolverines and has found a way to bring out the talent from this Chargers team. The Chargers reinforced their offensive and defensive lines in the off-season completely buying in to the Harbaugh game plan that really highlights building a team out from the trenches. The Chargers will be cheering for the Cincinnati Bengals in their matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers as a Steelers loss opens the door for the Chargers to take the #5 seed if they were to beat the Raiders on Sunday. The #5 seed looks to be a much better matchup as the Chargers would avoid the Baltimore Ravens with an imposing backfield of MVP candidate Lamar Jackson and Offensive Player of the Year candidate Derrick Henry. Playing at Houston is no easy task, but it would look to be the better of the top potential matchups for the Chargers.
Los Angeles Rams (#3 seed in the NFC): The Rams eventually pulled away and won the NFC West that looked for awhile like no team was willing to take control of. The Rams have a potent offence with Matthew Stafford orchestrating a high-octane passing attack with wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, while Kyren Williams dominates the rushing attack that completes the three headed offensive monster in Los Angeles. As a division winner the Rams can not fall past the #4 seed and control their own destiny to keep the #3 seed. A win or tie at home against the Seahawks would see the Rams clinch the #3 seed. Alternatively, if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose to the New Orleans Saints the Rams would stand pat at the #3 seed. A Rams loss and Buccaneers win would see the NFC West champions demoted to the #4 seed. With these results the Bucs would get the higher seed based on the second tiebreaker of conference winning percentage as the two teams do not have a head-to-head matchup to settle the first tiebreaker.
Washington Commanders (#6 seed in the NFC): The Commanders find themselves in the playoffs after getting what looks to be their franchise quarterback, Jayden Daniels, in the 2024 Draft. The Commanders currently hold the #6 seed and can only fall to the seventh seed. A win by the Commanders over the Dallas Cowboys guarantees them the #6 seed as they hold the tiebreaker over the #7 seed Green Bay Packers based off of conference winning percentage. A Commanders loss or tie accompanied by a Green Bay win over the Chicago Bears would see the Commanders fall to the #7 seed and set-up a divisional rubber match against the Eagles in the Wild Card round. A Green Bay tie accompanied with a Commanders loss would also see the Commanders slip to the seventh seed.
Detroit Lions (#1 seed in the NFC), Minnesota Vikings (#5 seed in the NFC), and Green Bay Packers (#7 seed in the NFC): The NFC North has been an absolute juggernaut this year with all three teams listed having 11+ wins on the season and holding three of the top five records in the NFC and two of the top three records in all of the NFL. The Sunday Night Football matchup between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings will be one of the most anticipated and intense regular season games this season. One of these two teams will lock up the #1 seed in the NFC, a first-round bye and the NFC North division crown, while the other team will be sitting at 14-3 and be stuck with the 5th seed and will have to travel to the #4 seed in the Wild Card round. The loser of this game will truly hate the fact that all three teams above them will have worse or equal records (Vikings-Lions loser would hold the tiebreaker over the Eagles). The second-best NFC team will be a 5th seed and very likely would set-up a rematch in the divisional round if they could beat the Rams or NFC South division winner. The Green Bay Packers seeding outcomes have been outlined above in the Washington Commanders section, as the two teams can only swap places with each other barring Sunday’s results.
Playoff Hopefuls: Teams that have not clinched a playoff spot yet but are still in the running to do so in Week 18. Both the NFC and AFC have one playoff spot up for grabs going into the final slate of regular season games. Seeding in brackets is the current seeding of teams.
Denver Broncos (#7 seed in the AFC), Miami Dolphins (currently outside of the playoffs), Cincinnati Bengals (currently outside of the playoffs): The Broncos still hold their playoff destiny in their own hands despite a wild overtime loss to Cincinnati last week that kept the Bengals slim playoff hopes alive. A Broncos win or tie against the Kansas City Chiefs, who will be resting many of their starters, would clinch the final playoff spot for the Broncos. The Dolphins and Bengals will be looking for any slip up from the Broncos as they both need a Broncos loss to have any chance of getting that last playoff spot. The Dolphins hold the tiebreaker over both the Broncos and Bengals, with a superior conference winning percentage, giving them the last playoff spot with a Week 18 win over the New York Jets and a Broncos loss to the Chiefs. The Bengals have the longest shot to make the playoffs needing both the Broncos and Dolphins to lose their Week 18 matchups, along with the Bengals being able to knock off the Steelers Saturday night in Pittsburgh with the Steelers still playing for crucial playoff seeding.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#4 seed in the NFC) and Atlanta Falcons (currently outside of the playoffs): The NFC South is still up for grabs and is the only playoff spot yet to be decided in the NFC. The Buccaneers hold the upper hand with a game lead over the Falcons needing only a win or tie to secure the NFC South title. If the Buccaneers were to lose to the New Orleans Saints, it would open the door to the Atlanta Falcons who own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Tampa Bay. The Falcons would need to beat the Carolina Panthers and have the Saints beat the Bucs to allow them to win the NFC South and secure the #4 seed. If the Bucs win and the Rams lose it would see the Buccaneers move up to the #3 seed, the Falcons can not get a seed higher than the four seed.
Current Playoff Picture:
AFC:
#1 Kansas City Chiefs (BYE)
Still in contention: Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals
NFC:
#1 Detroit Lions (BYE)
Still in contention: Atlanta Falcons
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