Canada’s World Juniors Woes

Coming off another loss Canada fell to third in their group and fans are looking for answers to what is going wrong with this year’s team. There have been some very encouraging stats and some clear flaws that have led Canada to where they stand heading into this year’s quarterfinals. Let’s start off with the positives from this group stage. Canada leads the tournament with only six goals against over their four games, with two shutouts against Finland and Germany. Canada has been playing amazing defensive 5-on-5 hockey with no goals allowed at even strength. Carter George, Canada’s starting goalie, has performed spectacularly in his three appearances. George leads the tournament with two shutouts and boasts the best save percentage and goals against average of all goaltenders to have played at least two games so far this tournament. Canada also has allowed the third least shots on goal this tournament furthering highlighting their stalwart defensive efforts. Now to get into the glaring failings of this team so far. Canada lacks the goal scoring prowess they usually bring to this tournament. Canada has scored a total of ten goals, ranking in the bottom half of tournament teams. Many fans will be questioning some roster decisions as Canada left off some offensive juggernauts from this year’s team. Forwards Andrew Cristall leads the Western Hockey League (WHL) in points per game this year while only trailing Gavin McKenna for the points lead, Michael Misa leads the Ontario Hockey League (OHL) in scoring this year, and Beckett Sennecke (third overall pick in last year’s draft) who is seventh in OHL scoring and has existing chemistry with Canadian first liner and assistant captain Cal Ritchie as they both spearhead the Oshawa Generals offence in the OHL. Notable defenders snubbed include two of the most highly touted offensive defencemen prospects in Zayne Parekh and Carter Yakemchuk drafted seventh and ninth respectively in the 2024 draft. Now adding these players over other players may not of made any difference, but the lack of scoring and success from this year’s team has increased the shouts of fans who believed the aforementioned players were snubbed from this year's team. Canada has the worst shooting percentage in the tournament converting goals on a dismal 5.78% of shots on net. You can chalk this up to some spectacular opposing goaltender performances, bad luck, or just the lack of scoring punch that many fans have been harping on since the naming of the roster. Another key issue with this team has been the lack of discipline. Canada leads the tournament with a whopping twenty-nine minor penalties, seven more than the next closest team. Canada only trails Czechia and Kazakhstan for total penalty minutes and that is solely on the fact that both the Czechs and Kazakhs have each had a game misconduct resulting in inflated penalty minute numbers. Canada’s special teams have not had the success of past tournaments and special teams’ success has been positively correlated with overall success. Canada is operating a bottom half powerplay and penalty kill with a sub 20% powerplay and sub 80% penalty kill where they have allowed five of their six goals against, the only other goal being an empty net goal against the United States (USA) in their last game.

Canada heads into the quarterfinals at this year’s World Juniors against a familiar foe. After a shocking shootout loss to Latvia and a dismal New Years Eve loss to the Americans Canada fell to third in their group behind the USA and Finland. This result sets up a matchup against Czechia, who finished second behind Sweden in Group B, and a rematch of last year’s quarterfinal where the Czechs upset Canada as the three seed crossing over to play the second seeded Canada. The Czechs are coming off a solid group stage where their only defeat was a 4-2 loss to Sweden who topped Group B. Czechia will be back at the Canadian Tire Center just over a week after they lost to Canada 3-2 in the final pre-tournament game before they headed to the TD Place where Group B held their group stage games. The Czechs are looking to repeat their performance from last year’s quarterfinal where they toppled the favoured Canadians, whereas Canada will hope the home crowd will propel them to a semifinal appearance after a worrying group stage. Canada comes in as a heavy betting favourite for this quarterfinal clash but the way both these teams have been playing this comes as a shock to me. I believe the Czechs have a strong chance to beat the Canadians for a second straight year at the quarterfinal stage. The Czechs have eight players with more points than Canada’s top scorer Easton Cowan (3 points) and have three of the top six scorers this tournament. Czechia has the best shooting percentage at 19.69% thrashing Canada’s tournament worst mark of 5.78%, both the Czech power play and penalty kill are ranked higher than Canada’s and the Czechs sport the third best goals against average anchored by their goaltender Michael Hrabal. Hrabal poses a tall task (literally and figuratively; Hrabal stands at 6’6) for a Canadian team that has struggled with scoring this tournament. Hrabal was the goalie last year when the Czechs upset the Canadians stopping 28 of the 30 shots he faced. Hrabal was also the goalie of record in the pre-tournament loss to Canada where he stopped 36 of 39 shots sent his way. Hrabal has the fourth best save percentage trailing only Canada’s Carter George, Finland’s Petteri Rimpinen and Latvia’s Linards Feldbergs and third best goals against average behind the Canadian and Finnish goalies. Canada will have to play a more disciplined game, limiting penalties and converting on scoring chances to continue on in this tournament. Canada must create traffic in front of Hrabal, something they managed to do relatively well late into the pre-tournament game resulting in both of Gavin McKenna’s goals. Canada will also be without a key contributor from that pre-tournament game with defenceman Matthew Schaefer suffering a broken collarbone in the game against Latvia ending the top prospects tournament. Despite Canada being heavy betting favourites in this game, I am predicting the Czechs to repeat last year’s result and knock the Canadians out of the tournament in the quarterfinals for a second straight year. The combination of Hrabal goaltending, Canadian lack of discipline and Czech scoring depth has me predicting a hard fought, low scoring, scrappy 3-2 win for the Czechs ending another disappointing tournament for Canada.